Russian Lines Collapsing

Ternove liberated after a hard-fought assault on the Oleksandrivka axis

Date episode published: 13-Mar-26

Let’s be precise. The whole front is not collapsing. But on one crucial stretch of the southern battlefield, Russian defences have very clearly been breached, rolled back, and thrown into disorder. Ukraine’s 425th Separate Assault Regiment “Skelya” says it has liberated Ternove in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, after a hard-fought assault on the Oleksandrivka axis - the borderland where Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk oblasts grind into one another.

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Local public broadcaster Suspilne Dnipro reported the liberation on 11 March, citing the regiment and an on-air interview with battalion commander Andrii Kiianenko.

What’s confirmed? Ukrainian forces have been conducting a sustained counteroffensive on this axis since late January. Ukraine’s military leadership says more than 400 square kilometres have been retaken on the broader front. Ukrainian and outside analysts say the initiative on this sector has shifted, at least locally, toward Kyiv. Ternove is now being reported as back under Ukrainian control. (Pravda)

What’s claimed by the regiment itself, but not independently corroborated is that the specific Ternove operation began on 30 January 2026, involved around 200 assault troops, included a three-day direct clearing phase, and inflicted over 600 Russian casualties. Those details may prove accurate, but right now they should be treated as battlefield claims from the unit, not yet independently nailed down by multiple major outlets. (UA News)

What the larger picture shows is that Ukraine has not conjured some a large-scale offensive out of nowhere. This is a planned, limited, highly tactical counteroffensive designed to do three things at once - disrupt Russian spring planning, claw back tactically useful ground, and stop Moscow from turning Dnipropetrovsk into a new “buffer zone” propaganda showcase. Major General Oleksandr Komarenko, head of the Main Operational Directorate of Ukraine’s General Staff, said that “almost the entire territory of the Dnipropetrovsk region has been liberated” and that only a handful of settlements remain to be finished or cleared. He described the operation as fully planned and approved, not some improvised raid. (Kyiv Post)

That is strategically important because Russia has been trying to inch westward not only for ground, but for narrative. If the Kremlin can say it has entered and held Dnipropetrovsk, it gets to sell a story of inexorable expansion - one more oblast terrorized, one more step toward Dnipro, one more argument that Ukraine is being slowly eaten alive. Komarenko has explicitly framed Russia’s aim here as the creation of a “buffer zone” in Dnipropetrovsk. If Ukraine now reverses that, the military effect matters - but the political humiliation matters too. Especially as media attention pivots toward the Middle East (Kyiv Post)

The tempo is striking. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on 9 March that Ukraine is trying to “force the enemy to play by our rules” and that the Air Assault grouping on this axis recovered 285.6 sq km in a month, with more than 400 sq km regained since the start of the operation. It lines up with follow-on reporting from Ukrainian outlets, Kyiv Independent, and AP-linked international coverage that says Russian troops were pushed from most of their foothold in the region. (Pravda)

And the analysts are broadly in the same place. Emil Kastehelmi of Finland’s Black Bird Group told the Kyiv Independent that “the initiative in this sector of the front has shifted to Ukraine.” But he also cautioned that this is best understood as a local tactical operation, not the opening act of some giant 2023-style counteroffensive. That sounds right. It is a hard, intelligent, opportunistic operation in flat, messy terrain where control is often partial, contested, and constantly probed by both sides. (The Kyiv Independent)

The front there has been full of infiltration, grey zones, local penetrations, and villages that are “taken” and retaken in quick succession. Troop concentrations can be low, and front lines porous. RBC-Ukraine, citing fresh ISW mapping, reported that geolocated footage published on 10 March suggested Ukrainian forces had indeed advanced in and around Ternove, and that earlier ambiguity over whether Russian troops still held positions there had shifted in Ukraine’s favour. (RBC Ukraine)

Meanwhile, Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesman for Ukraine’s Southern Defence Forces, said on 10 March that Ukrainian troops were conducting active counterattacks along the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, clearing settlements and regaining control in several areas. His blunt summary was that “The enemy has not had any success for several weeks.” He also said Russia had suffered heavy losses and made no progress there, while shifting effort southwest of Huliaipole. (Ukrinform)

Now add the tactical texture from the men doing the fighting. On Suspilne Dnipro, battalion commander Andrii Kiianenko described the Russians as demoralized and falling back, though he also warned that the battle remains difficult because of FPV drones, surviving Russian Starlink terminals, and the sheer persistence of Russian counterattacks. He said Ukraine is keeping up assault pressure specifically to deny the enemy time to pull in reserves.

This is where the social media picture becomes interesting. The regiment’s own posts, amplified across X and Threads on 10-11 March, pushed the dramatic version of events: enemy defences breached in southern Dnipropetrovsk, Ternove liberated, fighting continuing farther south, and in one version, a claim of “+19 km.” That number has spread fast. But so far, the more reliable secondary reporting has generally settled on “more than 10 km” for the local breakthrough, while reserving the larger 400+ sq km figure for the entire operation since late January. These numbers describe different scales of success. (X (formerly Twitter))

But even if Moscow stabilizes this sector, it has already been forced to plug holes, delay planned offensives and reallocate effort. Syrskyi said exactly that. Komarenko said Russian plans in this zone centred on widening a buffer zone and continuing offensive operations. Instead, Ukraine has forced the occupiers onto the back foot in a place where they expected steady pressure westward. (Pravda)

Russia is not finished. We should not imply that the whole line is disintegrating. Nor that one village changing hands changes the war overnight. But Ukraine has executed a disciplined local offensive on a politically sensitive sector, retaken Ternove, regained the initiative across part of the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhzhia border zone, and exposed once again how brittle Russian gains can look when faced with organized, aggressive counteraction. It show Ukraine has the potential to still push Russia back, backed by equipment, training, the right tactics and accurate intel. (????????? | ??????)

For the Kremlin, this is a problem. Because Moscow wanted Dnipropetrovsk to become a symbol of irreversible expansion - a symbol of the inevitability of its victory. But this narrative has been denied them. Instead, Ukraine is making it a symbol of something else: that Russian advances can be reversed, that local initiative can be seized, and that even after years of attritional war, the invader can still be hit, overwhelmed, and pushed back. (Kyiv Post)