Excellent news all round. And so pleasing to read the likes of Digger B here, protesting at the unfairness of it all and claiming Ukrainian raids on premises housing war equipment are some how a war crime! But somehow Previous attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets were not!
So taking out an Amazon warehouse would propel the west back to the 90’s . Utter rubbish . I think it’s Iran that’s been targeting Amazon hubs . Is America back in the 90’s yet ?
You wrote: «The deadliest Ukrainian deep strikes inside Russia in two years. Around a tenth of the company’s national warehouse capacity gone.» Ten percent is of course nothing to sneeze at, but is it really enough to bring down the company? Where are the remaining 90 percent?
You've got to remember that the impact isn't just on the raw retail operations. Most businesses are underpinned by 1 key requirement - "number go up". Once "number go down" things can turn nasty very quickly. Let's just say that for the sake of argument that the 10% reduction in warehouse capacity became a 10% in sales. A 10% reduction in sales might easily become a 20% reduction in profit, depending on your fixed versus variable costs and what the profit margins were on the most affected goods. The investors then look at your future cash flows and say "OK, you're making less profit over the next x years, so on a discounted cash flow basis your stock is now worth y less, or more accurately is offering a lower return over thst period compared to something else, so I'm going to sell off some stock". So, your stock price goes down because all these investors are selling off. At the same time you've also got all the rebuilding costs, which may or may not be covered by insurance. And your marketplace sellers, the small businesses who sell via your platform, some of them have now gone tits up, so that softens demand which also reduces revenue (and tbh it's these seller fees where they often make the real money). Plus your customers have to re-evaluate the risk of buying online via your marketplace and never getting their items because they burnt up due to a drone strike, so they look elsewhere or decide to pay that bit extra to buy in person to be sure they get their goods. Softening consumer demand doesn't help your revenue, either. So, now your lenders are taking a look. Every loan comes with covenants - terms and conditions you're required to meet, like minimum stock price, or profitability, or growth targets (remember - "number must go up"!) and if those covenants are breached bad things happen, like interest rates go up, loans become convertible to stock, voting rights are increased, or at the extreme end the loan becomes immediately repayable. It's extremely possible to lose control of your business and be out on the street from what in the long run was a temporary cash flow situation. And hey, this is Russia, your route from Boardroom to pavement is quite possibly via the nearest window, not the executive elevator.
Tl;dr everything is interconnected and ripples back and forth in ways that are hard to predict. The smart physics people would say that the system is "complex", and that changes in inputs can result in wild variations in outputs. 10% cannot and does not flow linearly through the entire value chain.
Thank you for the analysis and the answer. I agree with it, but I also think this shows the need to continue those attacks. But thankfully my beliefs here seems to be in line with Ukrainian analysis and actions. But I agree that this isn’t linear.
The core point is right and worth saying plainly: Putin's war and a modern economy can't share a country, and Russia is setting itself back technologically by a decade at least. That part is simply true. The one thing I'd gently push on is reading it as proof that Ukraine is winning. It proves Russia is losing something real, which isn't the same thing. In this war, both sides can lose at once.
Perhaps you can supply some data? There are 3 morphology puzzles.
1- Historical - The Germans invested in rail to the east for the planned war with huge funds. They made one critical mistake with rail which may be the main reason they lost the war in the east. Unfortunately for their war effort, near zero funding was allocated in bulk numbers for the well known LACK of "autobahn" capacity thru Poland over into Kyiv.
2- The ONLY Invasion that COUNTS in 2026!! What data do you have on the exact funding amounts that the Han-Muscovy Cabal allocated to the insurrection network that was installed inside independent Ukraine pre-February 2014? What personnel numbers do you have? Obviously regular Kremlin Muscovy troops are not irregulars ( who may not be all Muscovy) but who has accumulated a real statistical grasp of this Han planned/funded but FSB run insurrection/invasion multi-mode operation. What military Hardware was allocated when, where + to whom?
When did the unique World War Xi jagged edges get exposed to the Putin Cabal? By Han intelligence Previous to the Xi visit to Putin, or concurrent with this Visit to the Kremlin Cabal? Is there a name associated with the creation and approval of this long term destabilization of Independent Ukraine thru simple Balkanization? Some comment is that early AI showed Han intelligence gamers how simple it would be to use Wu Wei on the new morons newly established in the White-House/ POTUS staff architecture.
3. The invasion that seems to be half revealed. So, everyone in 2026 can count the parade uniforms that Uncle Putin had dry cleaned in 2022 for his boysiks. OK. Done.
Now, how many insurrectionist Boots on the Ground were already inside 2022 Ukraine? Obviously regular Muscovy troops were installed inside Ukraine in the years after 2014. But, what numbers are legitimate for the regular troops at the end of 2021? Conversely, there seems no authoritative voice on the 'Basement Butchers Brigades'! Tens of thousands ( one speculates on the maximum) of "3B" insurrection anarchists moved in furtive annonamous groups in 2014 to mass abduct, abuse + trade for military needs, Ukrainian children, all at the insurrectionist genetic desire + Muscovy ethnic will. Tax funded "Little Green Groomers" were promptly equipped by Putin to re-package Ukrainian children with new identities for FREE air shipment to needy Ruzzkie language + dancing teachers about Moscoow.
"3B" war criminals and mass atrocity are a reality that nobody seems to have a number on? Where there 2, 3 or 4 million of "3B" war criminals already by the date of the 2022 Kremlin Muscovy invasion?
This speculation is that since 2014 there were at least the equivalent number of armed "3B' insurrection anarchists for every parade uniform trooper shipped in 2022 by Putin.
That is, there were about 500,000 armed regular + "3B" inside independent Ukraine in 2022 all in various, still to be identified, guises.
Remember that the FSB moles, spies, collaborators and MSM fellow travellers of 2026 still put on full length opera in the WEST + USA MSM that the 24/7 need for spontaneous rock + roll and/or blues singing in ruuzzkie language was the sole reason to convince the highly intelligent 2014 POTUS Obama + Democrat Cabal to capitulate to the Balkanization of independent Ukraine.
While in a minor statistic, the exact role of the unique World War Xi Han intelligence in the 2022 Muscovy operation stills needs full 100% disclosure.
Is there some expert on this exact field of knowledge inside Ukraine right now? One should assume that there are hundreds of PhD's near or already completed on this exact subject.
One thing is for sure: this winter will be as bad for Russia as these past three winters have been for Ukraine.
Seems only fair.
I ❤️ this for them! Slava Ukraini!
There is a hidden message to Russian oligarchs: Putin cannot protect you.
They know it now, but what to do.
Go Ukraine, go !
Data centres next? Not as public, but I’m sure the SBU can sus them out…
Excellent news all round. And so pleasing to read the likes of Digger B here, protesting at the unfairness of it all and claiming Ukrainian raids on premises housing war equipment are some how a war crime! But somehow Previous attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets were not!
More excellent reporting. Thanks Jonathan.
How has the unique World War Xi processed this rapid development? Any manifestations?
So taking out an Amazon warehouse would propel the west back to the 90’s . Utter rubbish . I think it’s Iran that’s been targeting Amazon hubs . Is America back in the 90’s yet ?
https://substack.com/@themidnightmanuscripts
You wrote: «The deadliest Ukrainian deep strikes inside Russia in two years. Around a tenth of the company’s national warehouse capacity gone.» Ten percent is of course nothing to sneeze at, but is it really enough to bring down the company? Where are the remaining 90 percent?
You've got to remember that the impact isn't just on the raw retail operations. Most businesses are underpinned by 1 key requirement - "number go up". Once "number go down" things can turn nasty very quickly. Let's just say that for the sake of argument that the 10% reduction in warehouse capacity became a 10% in sales. A 10% reduction in sales might easily become a 20% reduction in profit, depending on your fixed versus variable costs and what the profit margins were on the most affected goods. The investors then look at your future cash flows and say "OK, you're making less profit over the next x years, so on a discounted cash flow basis your stock is now worth y less, or more accurately is offering a lower return over thst period compared to something else, so I'm going to sell off some stock". So, your stock price goes down because all these investors are selling off. At the same time you've also got all the rebuilding costs, which may or may not be covered by insurance. And your marketplace sellers, the small businesses who sell via your platform, some of them have now gone tits up, so that softens demand which also reduces revenue (and tbh it's these seller fees where they often make the real money). Plus your customers have to re-evaluate the risk of buying online via your marketplace and never getting their items because they burnt up due to a drone strike, so they look elsewhere or decide to pay that bit extra to buy in person to be sure they get their goods. Softening consumer demand doesn't help your revenue, either. So, now your lenders are taking a look. Every loan comes with covenants - terms and conditions you're required to meet, like minimum stock price, or profitability, or growth targets (remember - "number must go up"!) and if those covenants are breached bad things happen, like interest rates go up, loans become convertible to stock, voting rights are increased, or at the extreme end the loan becomes immediately repayable. It's extremely possible to lose control of your business and be out on the street from what in the long run was a temporary cash flow situation. And hey, this is Russia, your route from Boardroom to pavement is quite possibly via the nearest window, not the executive elevator.
Tl;dr everything is interconnected and ripples back and forth in ways that are hard to predict. The smart physics people would say that the system is "complex", and that changes in inputs can result in wild variations in outputs. 10% cannot and does not flow linearly through the entire value chain.
Thank you for the analysis and the answer. I agree with it, but I also think this shows the need to continue those attacks. But thankfully my beliefs here seems to be in line with Ukrainian analysis and actions. But I agree that this isn’t linear.
The core point is right and worth saying plainly: Putin's war and a modern economy can't share a country, and Russia is setting itself back technologically by a decade at least. That part is simply true. The one thing I'd gently push on is reading it as proof that Ukraine is winning. It proves Russia is losing something real, which isn't the same thing. In this war, both sides can lose at once.
See: Victory, Phyrric...
This fits nicely into Ukraine's 'Logistical Lockdown' strategy https://peccatusulterius602432.substack.com/p/ukraines-logistical-lockdown?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=3yh6pc
Perhaps you can supply some data? There are 3 morphology puzzles.
1- Historical - The Germans invested in rail to the east for the planned war with huge funds. They made one critical mistake with rail which may be the main reason they lost the war in the east. Unfortunately for their war effort, near zero funding was allocated in bulk numbers for the well known LACK of "autobahn" capacity thru Poland over into Kyiv.
2- The ONLY Invasion that COUNTS in 2026!! What data do you have on the exact funding amounts that the Han-Muscovy Cabal allocated to the insurrection network that was installed inside independent Ukraine pre-February 2014? What personnel numbers do you have? Obviously regular Kremlin Muscovy troops are not irregulars ( who may not be all Muscovy) but who has accumulated a real statistical grasp of this Han planned/funded but FSB run insurrection/invasion multi-mode operation. What military Hardware was allocated when, where + to whom?
When did the unique World War Xi jagged edges get exposed to the Putin Cabal? By Han intelligence Previous to the Xi visit to Putin, or concurrent with this Visit to the Kremlin Cabal? Is there a name associated with the creation and approval of this long term destabilization of Independent Ukraine thru simple Balkanization? Some comment is that early AI showed Han intelligence gamers how simple it would be to use Wu Wei on the new morons newly established in the White-House/ POTUS staff architecture.
3. The invasion that seems to be half revealed. So, everyone in 2026 can count the parade uniforms that Uncle Putin had dry cleaned in 2022 for his boysiks. OK. Done.
Now, how many insurrectionist Boots on the Ground were already inside 2022 Ukraine? Obviously regular Muscovy troops were installed inside Ukraine in the years after 2014. But, what numbers are legitimate for the regular troops at the end of 2021? Conversely, there seems no authoritative voice on the 'Basement Butchers Brigades'! Tens of thousands ( one speculates on the maximum) of "3B" insurrection anarchists moved in furtive annonamous groups in 2014 to mass abduct, abuse + trade for military needs, Ukrainian children, all at the insurrectionist genetic desire + Muscovy ethnic will. Tax funded "Little Green Groomers" were promptly equipped by Putin to re-package Ukrainian children with new identities for FREE air shipment to needy Ruzzkie language + dancing teachers about Moscoow.
"3B" war criminals and mass atrocity are a reality that nobody seems to have a number on? Where there 2, 3 or 4 million of "3B" war criminals already by the date of the 2022 Kremlin Muscovy invasion?
This speculation is that since 2014 there were at least the equivalent number of armed "3B' insurrection anarchists for every parade uniform trooper shipped in 2022 by Putin.
That is, there were about 500,000 armed regular + "3B" inside independent Ukraine in 2022 all in various, still to be identified, guises.
Remember that the FSB moles, spies, collaborators and MSM fellow travellers of 2026 still put on full length opera in the WEST + USA MSM that the 24/7 need for spontaneous rock + roll and/or blues singing in ruuzzkie language was the sole reason to convince the highly intelligent 2014 POTUS Obama + Democrat Cabal to capitulate to the Balkanization of independent Ukraine.
While in a minor statistic, the exact role of the unique World War Xi Han intelligence in the 2022 Muscovy operation stills needs full 100% disclosure.
Is there some expert on this exact field of knowledge inside Ukraine right now? One should assume that there are hundreds of PhD's near or already completed on this exact subject.
Thank you for your focus on this subject!